🔍 SPY Daily Analysis – Week Starting November 17, 2025

The daily chart remains a tight tug-of-war — structure against momentum, bulls against bears.

As expected, last Friday’s setup carried into a Monday rally. That move did two things simultaneously: it created a new bear flag with its higher high and low, and then immediately invalidated it by closing above the 38.2% retracement. That close gave bulls an opportunity to push further, and they followed through into midweek before running out of steam on Wednesday.

By Thursday, price had pulled back and printed a new bull flag, marked by a lower high and low. Then on Friday, SPY briefly dipped below that bull flag’s 38.2% support before reclaiming it into the close — holding structure but not without consequence.

That extended move down shifted short-term momentum back toward the bears and set up conditions for another potential bear flag early this week. If that happens, we’ll be watching for an adjustment in support to Friday’s low, as that would become the new level to defend.

Here’s how the path forward breaks down:

1. If we get an early week push higher, it’s likely to complete a new bear flag pattern inside the current, not-yet-invalidated bull flag. This would keep the market trapped inside the same chop zone but give bears another shot to reclaim momentum.

2. A close below the trend line or 50SMA strengthens that bearish momentum — but the key level to confirm breakdown remains the support zone near 661.21 (or Friday’s low, if a new flag forms). That’s where a move toward the 100SMA and our first downside target around 654–651 comes into play quickly.

3. If bulls can break above the downtrend and clear 684.96, they’ll invalidate the developing bearish setup and confirm continuation from the existing bull flag structure. That opens the door for a test of ATH resistance around 689.7–690.8, likely followed by light consolidation as a new higher bull flag forms.

4. Momentum-wise, RSI is starting to hold below 50, the squeeze histogram is attempting to roll over, and QQQ’s lower lows reinforce short-term downside pressure. If the squeeze releases to the downside, expect choppy selling at best — and a sharper pullback at worst.

For now, we remain inside the chop zone — but both sides are loading energy.
A push higher builds another flag; a failure below trend support confirms the deeper pullback we’ve been watching for.
Stay flexible, stay patient, and let the structure guide you.