SPY Coiling Inside a Daily Squeeze — The Next Break Will Set the Tone

SPY spent last week grinding inside a tight range after reclaiming resistance and tagging the 669 area midweek. The move completed a new bear flag pattern inside the larger weekly bull flag — and that structure remains intact unless price closes decisively above 665.89.

Right now, the index sits in a well-defined chop zone between 665.89 and 660.90, with a daily squeeze building and momentum compressing beneath the surface.

Here’s what matters most from here:

• The bear flag is still intact, but a close above 665.89 would invalidate it.

• A breakout through 673.95 would confirm continuation toward the weekly target near 681.23, especially if the squeeze histogram rolls positive and MACD confirms with a crossover.

  • Traders can also watch the 4H oscillators for early confirmation — if 4H MFI pushes into overbought before MACD crosses, that often signals a failed initial breakout and the start of a new bull flag formation.

• On the downside, watch for the squeeze histogram to continue expanding negatively and RSI to roll back under 50.

  • A close below 652.84 would break the short-term trend again and likely bring a pullback to the 647–639region — the same zone where buyers stepped in on previous shakeouts.

Until one of those conditions resolves, SPY remains in the chop zone, and this squeeze is a coil waiting for confirmation.

Patience pays here. These are the environments where impulsive traders get chopped up — the ones who wait for structure and confirmation will be ready when the next clean move begins.

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