📅 DAILY MARKET ANALYSIS (SPY — Daily Chart)

On the daily chart, momentum is attempting to re-engage, but the structure remains fragile.

A minor squeeze has developed as MACD crossed back bullish, however Bollinger Bands remain tightly compressed and ADX is still low. That combination tells us directional strength has not meaningfully expanded yet. In other words, this is an attempted breakout, not confirmed continuation.

Friday’s candle did manage to hold above prior resistance, which is constructive from a structural standpoint. However, it’s important to be precise about expectations here. The prior ATH and the 692.6 Fibonacci extension were always defined together as the first upside target, and that zone was flagged earlier in the week as an area where resistance was likely to develop, not accelerate.

So the question isn’t whether price can tag that level — it’s whether there is sufficient fuel after it does.

Without a true expansion phase — rising volume, widening bands, and sustained follow-through momentum — upside beyond that zone is likely limited. In that context, strength into highs is something to respect, but not something to chase.

⏱️ 4-Hour Chart Perspective

Dropping down to the 4-hour timeframe adds an important layer of caution.

What appears as consolidation on the daily chart was less constructive internally. On Friday, 4H MACD crossed down intraday while MFI rolled out of overbought, shifting the lower timeframe into a bearish posture heading into the close. That kind of divergence matters most when it shows up at or near highs.

If price is rejected in this zone, it would likely mark a failed breakout attempt, opening the door to a broader market pullback for a more complete reset.

While the most recent pullback technically qualified as a correction, it may not have been sufficiently absorptive. With price now back at highs, participants tend to become more risk-sensitive and quicker to lock in profits — especially when better structural opportunities are likely to emerge at lower levels.

🎯 Bottom Line

The market is pressing higher, but conviction remains thin.

A clean breakout requires expansion, not just price holding above resistance. Until that expansion shows up, this remains a zone where failed breakouts and deeper resets are very much on the table.

Let structure lead.
Confirmation over anticipation.