📅 DAILY MARKET ANALYSIS (SPY — Daily Chart)

Last week’s breakout played out exactly as expected.

On Monday, we flagged the daily breakout in real time heading into the close, with $689.7–$692.6 marked as the primary resistance / upside target zone. That level was reached on Thursday, and by Friday momentum had already begun to stall — with 4H momentum rolling bearish into the close, just as noted in last Sunday’s update.

From there, the roadmap was clear:

• Lose Friday’s low → pullback into the rising trendline

• Lose the trendline → deeper retracement toward the 50SMA / daily support zone

That entire sequence has now unfolded.

Price failed to hold the breakout level from the prior Monday’s pattern, rolled over, and spent Friday hanging just above the 50SMA, confirming that the breakout attempt has been rejected for now.

Momentum has followed price:

• Daily MACD has crossed back to bearish

• DMI has also rolled bearish

• A handful of studies are still marginally bullish, but overall alignment has clearly weakened

Taken together, this puts the market in a spot where upside is likely choppy at best, not clean or impulsive.

🧭 What Matters From Here

At this stage, the focus shifts away from upside continuation and toward structure reset.

What we want to see next:

• The squeeze histogram roll over and align with broader bearish momentum

• A deeper retracement into daily support levels, not just shallow consolidation

That type of pullback would likely form a new daily bear flag, which can act as the mechanism to guide price lower into stronger support zones — where real buyers can step back in and allow the broader trend to resume cleanly, rather than grinding higher without fuel.

🎯 Bottom Line

The breakout worked.

The stall was identified early.

The pullback roadmap played out cleanly.

From here:

• Expect choppy upside if price attempts to bounce prematurely

• Favor structure and momentum alignment over guessing reversals

• Let a proper daily reset do the work of rebuilding the trend

The next high-quality opportunity comes after this digestion phase completes — not in the middle of it.