SPY Daily Overview – Week of August 4, 2025

After breaking trend two Fridays ago, SPY wasted no time reclaiming momentum. Last Monday, price broke back above resistance and re-entered the rising trendline, quickly putting bulls back in control.

As long as price continues to hold this trend and trade above that reclaimed breakout level, the focus now shifts to the recent swing high at 639.85. A confirmed break above that level opens the door to the next daily Fibonacci target from our bull flag structure at 647.53.

The moving average picture continues to strengthen. Both the 50SMA and 100SMA are now rising sharply, with the 100 closing in on a cross above the 200SMA — the final step to fully restore the market’s most bullish alignment (50 > 100 > 200). That alignment would signal that this hot market is likely still in the early stages of its move.

For now, trend integrity is the guide. Hold the uptrend, break the highs, and the next leg is in motion. Lose the trend, and we’ll shift our focus back to key support levels and potential consolidation.