📅 DAILY MARKET ANALYSIS (SPY — Daily Chart)

Last week we were watching for the new bull flag to form, and the market wasted no time delivering it.

Monday opened lower, immediately giving us the lower high and lower low needed to confirm the flag structure after the previous week’s explosive rally.

But unlike the recent pattern fake-outs…

This one didn’t break. It activated.

Instead of collapsing, price immediately started working the pattern, pressing into resistance over and over through the week. By Friday, SPY printed a topping tail right into / just above bear resistance at 684.96, finishing the week with momentum shifting back toward the highs.

That puts:

• Monthly / Weekly resistance (ATH zone) back in view

• Fib Target 1 of the flag at 692.6 directly overhead

• And the breakout continuation path clearly defined

If bulls can maintain this breakout, 692.6 is the next stop, followed by a retest of the all-time highs.

⚠️ What to Watch This Week

If the breakout holds

Price likely pushes directly into 692.6, and the daily bull flag continues to play out toward new highs.

If price loses the 10EMA (D)

Expect a pullback into support and a redraw of fibs.

That tightening raises risk of:

• A deeper retest of the 100SMA, or

• A larger corrective move if the weekly trend fails and price loses the 50SMA

The weekly chart is in a delicate spot. Another leg up becomes far more likely if bulls can secure a weekly MACD cross back to bullish.

🎯 Bottom Line

Momentum is shifting.

The VIX has collapsed.

Markets are back pressing into major resistance.

Bulls have the ball — but this week will tell us if they can keep control and convert this bull flag into the next leg toward new ATHs.

This is a pivotal week.