SPY Hits New Highs — Bull Flag Breakout or Early Exhaustion?

The daily chart played out almost perfectly last week — only faster than expected.
After reclaiming resistance Monday and consolidating midweek, SPY formed a clean daily bull flag that broke out Friday, running straight to its first target at 677.31 and confirming a fresh wave of bullish momentum.

That breakout reestablished strength across multiple timeframes and set up two key scenarios for the week ahead:

1️⃣ Continuation Scenario (Most Likely):
If buyers stay in control, SPY could extend higher early in the week, tagging the weekly target at 681.23 and potentially overshooting into the 682–683 range.
Short-term momentum (particularly on the 4h chart) would likely become overbought at that point, leading to a controlled fade and retest of the breakout zone — a natural setup for the next daily bull flag to form before continuation.

2️⃣ Retest / Consolidation Scenario (Less Likely):
If price stalls before reaching 681, we could see a gap-fill move that pulls price back toward the 666.92 support zone.
That would reset short-term momentum and likely lead to another week or so of sideways consolidation before the next leg higher toward the weekly target.

In both outcomes, structure remains bullish and aligned.
Momentum is healthy, leadership is broadening, and several names across the weekly watchlist are showing the exact same pattern setup that powered SPY’s breakout.

Patience here pays — avoid chasing the move that’s already happened and instead look for the retest or the next flag setup to join the trend with structure on your side for intraday moves.

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