📅 SPY Daily Overview – Week of July 21, 2025

Last week served as a textbook example of how divergences signal exhaustion, not reversal.

We entered the week tracking a developing bearish divergence on daily RSI — but as noted, divergences don’t equal immediate trend changes. They highlight exhaustion risk, not a guaranteed shift.

And the market proved exactly that.

🔍 Daily Breakdown

• Monday: A strong open kicked off the week with bullish momentum.

• Tuesday–Wednesday: Price rejected sharply and dropped, but buyers stepped back in, and by Wednesday afternoon SPY was climbing again.

• Thursday: Price broke above the key resistance at 626.28.

• Friday: Clean backtest of that same level, which held as support.

That backtest sets the stage. As long as SPY continues to hold above 626.28, and more importantly, holds the daily trend defined by the 10EMA (D), bulls remain firmly in control.

🔧 Structural & Momentum Notes

• The 50SMA is accelerating upward quickly.

• Both the 100 and 200 SMAs are also turning up — clear signs of an improving, healthy trend.

• Swing momentum remains strong, with no signs of a momentum reversal in play.

What we’re seeing now is classic momentum phase structure:

1. Impulse Phase: The initial surge off the lows.

2. Pause/Consolidation: Bull flags and backtests like we saw midweek.

3. Targeted Continuation: The move toward previously established upside targets — in this case, our next level near 635.63.

🔭 What to Watch

• Continued strength above 626.28 keeps the push toward 635.63 in play.

• Should price lose that level, eyes shift to the 10EMA and trendline support.

• Below that, watch the bullish support zone around 613–605.

Until proven otherwise, the path of least resistance remains higher — especially with improving trend health and confirmed higher timeframe breakouts.