SPY Rebounds Off the 100SMA — Watching for the Next Daily Bull Flag

Nov 30, 2025

📅 DAILY MARKET ANALYSIS (SPY — Daily Chart)

Two Sunday's ago, we highlighted the 661.21 support level as the line that, if broken, should send SPY down toward the 100 SMA. That move finally played out — SPY lost 661.21, flushed into the 100 SMA, and immediately the next day (two Friday's ago) printed a Buy signal across SPY, QQQ, and IWM.

That buy signal is the reason we noted in last week’s analysis to keep a close eye on the In-The-BuyZone names — because after an oversold tag of the lower band inside a strong long-term uptrend, those are the tickers that normally lead the reversal.

And sure enough, they did.

The market spent all of last week grinding higher off that Buy signal, hitting the first upside target the same day it triggered, then marching through the remaining targets throughout the week. In the process, SPY fully invalidated the most recent daily bear flag, shifting the short-term momentum back to the bullish side.


🧭 Where Things Stand Now

We’re back in “wait and see” mode as this sharp reversal matures.

SPY is currently pressing into the underside of the downtrend — a natural spot for momentum to stall as the chart prepares to form its next pattern. Given the strength of the rebound, the next confirmed structure will almost certainly be a bull flag once this upswing exhausts.

The flip-flopping between bull and bear patterns has definitely been noisy, but that’s normal when neither side has sustained control. Eventually one side will take over, and the short-term trend will clean up — but until then, the only job is to follow structure and avoid forcing trades inside the chop.


🔍 What to Watch This Week

1. A pullback to form the new bull flag
Once this rally cools, the market will need to build the next daily flag structure. That’s where clean entries will come from.

2. Bullish tickers leading the way
With bearish momentum canceled, focus on names that already have strong bullish structures forming or breaking out.

3. Bearish tickers for the next rotation
If/when SPY pulls back to form the new bull flag, the weakest names — the ones still in bearish alignment — will likely move hardest to the downside during that pullback.

4. Weekly Setup candidates
If strong names simply consolidate into support during SPY’s flag build, they’ll pop up here first.


🎯 Bottom Line

The breakdown → 100 SMA touch → Buy signal → full reversal was the cleanest sequence we’ve had in weeks.
Now we let this upswing finish forming, watch for the new bull flag, and stick with the strongest structural trends.

The next wave of opportunity will come after this pattern completes — not inside the middle of it.

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